Four Years of Padma Bridge: What Bangladesh Actually Gained Since 2022
Four years ago, travelling between Dhaka and southwestern Bangladesh still depended on the Padma River. Buses could spend more than three hours waiting and crossing by ferry, while trucks sometimes lost hours or even days when queues, weather or strong currents disrupted service. Before the bridge opened, a typical bus required about 188 minutes to wait for and cross the river, while a truck could require around 231 minutes.
Padma Bridge changed that problem permanently when road traffic began on 26 June 2022. By the end of June 2026, more than 26.86 million vehicles had crossed it and Bangladesh Bridge Authority had collected Tk3,429.45 crore in tolls.
Four years is still too short to measure every long-term economic effect. But there is now enough evidence to say that Padma Bridge has already delivered its strongest promised benefit: turning the southwest from a ferry-dependent region into part of a continuous national road and rail network.
The Biggest Change Is Time
Before Padma Bridge, distance was only part of the problem. Travellers had no control over ferry queues, loading time, bad weather or river conditions, which made journey times difficult to predict.
A 2025 study by researchers at Khulna University of Engineering & Technology compared travel routes before and after the bridge. Their results show substantial reductions for many southwestern districts.
These figures compare routing conditions in 2021 and 2022 rather than exact 2026 bus timetables. Their importance is that the bridge removed the river crossing as the main uncertainty and changed which routes were fastest for almost the entire southwest.
Government calculations before opening estimated that reduced ferry waiting alone could save around Tk680 crore in time value each year, while lower vehicle operating costs could save another Tk438 crore annually. When ferry waiting was fully included, the estimated annual value of time savings reached about Tk1,118 crore.
Traffic Has Continued Growing
The bridge has not suffered from a lack of users. Annual vehicle crossings increased from 6.26 million in 2023 to 6.73 million in 2024 and 7.24 million in 2025. Toll revenue increased from Tk814.68 crore to Tk836.45 crore and then Tk888.82 crore over the same period.
By 29 June 2026, cumulative traffic had reached 26,862,808 vehicles and cumulative toll collection stood at Tk3,429.45 crore. BBA had already transferred Tk2,516.68 crore to the government through 16 loan instalments, with no instalments overdue.
That is important because Padma Bridge was financed differently from many other megaprojects. The Finance Division effectively lent the construction money to BBA, which must repay about Tk36,000 crore including 1% interest over 35 years.
Can Padma Bridge Recover Its Cost Earlier Than Expected?
The official repayment schedule runs until around 2057. When the bridge opened, former prime minister Sheikh Hasina also suggested tolls might recover the construction cost within 18–20 years, rather than the original longer period.
Four years of actual revenue suggest something between those two scenarios is more realistic.
Padma Bridge cost approximately Tk30,770 crore, while the government expects around Tk36,000 crore back from BBA after interest. Toll revenue has so far averaged roughly Tk857 crore per year, although annual revenue has been gradually increasing.
A simple scenario shows what could happen if annual toll revenue continues growing:
These are my calculations using the June 2026 cumulative revenue and recent annual toll levels. They are gross-revenue scenarios rather than official repayment forecasts, because Bangladesh Bridge Authority (BBA) also has operating costs, maintenance costs, VAT and other expenses.
The useful conclusion is therefore narrower. Recovering the money earlier than the 35-year schedule is plausible if traffic and toll income keep growing, but the first four years do not support assuming an 18–20 year payback yet.
The Economic Benefit Is Bigger Than Toll Revenue
Toll revenue measures only what the bridge earns directly. The larger economic benefit comes from reducing the cost of moving people, agricultural products, industrial goods and services between Dhaka and around 21 southwestern districts.
A 2025 study of residents in Barishal Division found improvements in employment opportunities, business activity and access to healthcare and education following the bridge's opening. Researchers also found stronger trade links and regional integration, although the benefits were not distributed equally.
Tourism showed an early response as well. Kuakata businesses reported a major increase in visitors after the bridge opened, and local tourism officials said tourist numbers roughly doubled during the initial post-bridge period.
The bridge has also gained another function since opening. Passenger trains now cross the lower deck, while the Padma Bridge Rail Link created a much shorter Dhaka–Jashore railway corridor and opened direct rail opportunities toward Khulna, Benapole and the southwest.
But the Bridge Has Not Automatically Industrialised the South
Before construction, economic studies estimated that Padma Bridge could eventually raise national GDP by roughly 1.2–1.23% and contribute to poverty reduction in the southwest. Those figures are forecasts from economic models, so they should not be presented as measured GDP growth already produced during the first four years.
Actual investment has been slower than many early expectations. In the year reported by BIDA in 2024, Khulna and Barishal together received only 18 registered investment proposals, worth around Tk1,341 crore, while businesses continued to cite shortages of gas, industrial land and other supporting infrastructure.
The Barishal BSCIC estate showed the same problem in 2025, with roughly two-thirds of its plots reportedly idle and businesses still lacking industrial gas. The bridge solved connectivity, but industrialisation still depends on electricity, gas, land, ports, railway freight capacity and investment policy.
Four Years Later, the Core Investment Case Has Worked
Padma Bridge has not transformed every economic indicator in southern Bangladesh within four years. No single bridge could do that without complementary infrastructure and private investment.
What it has done is remove one of Bangladesh's largest physical transport barriers. Millions of vehicles now cross the Padma without ferries, journeys to major southwestern cities are hours shorter and more predictable, railway connectivity has expanded and the bridge is already generating close to Tk900 crore a year in toll revenue.
The strongest result is therefore not a forecasted GDP percentage or a political claim about the project. It is that a region once separated from Dhaka by an unpredictable river crossing now has permanent road and rail connectivity, and the traffic numbers show that people and businesses are using it more each year.
If that traffic and economic activity continue growing, Padma Bridge could repay its financial cost before the formal 35-year schedule. Its wider return, however, is already appearing in something toll booths cannot fully measure: time saved, markets connected and an entire region brought closer to the centre of Bangladesh's economy.
References
Bangladesh Bridge Authority
Padma Bridge Rail Link Project
Journal of Engineering Science, KUET
The Business Standard
The Daily Star
United News of Bangladesh
Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha
Journal of Humanities, Arts and Social Science
0 Comments